That other election

Yes, yes. Francois Hollande has won the French presidency. Congratulations to him and all that.

Far more significant, in my humble opinion, and far more important to the EUnion crisis, are the Greek elections. And it is there where the real fireworks are being lit.

As The Slog reports, the two main players in Greek politics (and the only two pro-austerity parties) managed to rake in a meagre 33% only.

I’m showing the predictions grouped below, because under Greek electoral law, the top three parties get first crack at an attempt to form a Government. They are allowed a maximum of three days to do so. (Thanks to PP’s Dimitris for guiding me on this)

New Democracy 18.8%
SYRIZA – left – 15.2%
PASOK – 13.5%

As we can see immediately, the total pro-bailout vote is projected to be 32.3% – less than a third of the electorate. But the anarchic element in this ‘Top Three’ is that the second biggest Party is virulently anti-bailout, and thus very unlikely to do a deal with the other two. So my guesstimate at this point would be that after three days – assuming Wolfgang Schäuble and Tim Geithner haven’t already taken Athens prisoner double-handed – New Democracy and Pasok will try and pick off wavering elements in smaller Parties in order to cobble together some nefarious form of National Government.

At a turn-out of 82.7% it will be very hard for the EUnion to dismiss the results or use ‘low turnout’ as an excuse for any null-and-void-lets-get-the-technocrats-involved nonsense. The next week will be interesting indeed.

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