I am taking a short break from taking a prolonged break from blogging to bring you this bit of news. The report Business Insider estimates will ‘blow up the eurozone’ was released today: Report shows the Netherlands can leave the euro, says Wilders.
A report into the cost of the euro commissioned by Geert Wilders shows the Netherlands can return to the guilder, the PVV leader said at the presentation on Monday afternoon.
‘The results go against everything we are told in the media and by the left-wing elite on a daily basis,’ Wilders said. ‘The Netherlands can go back to the guilder.’
The research states the shift to the euro has hit the Netherlands’ prosperity. For example, the Dutch economy has grown by an average 1.25% [yearly] since the euro was introduced, compared with 3% [yearly] in the 20 preceding years.
Yet over the past 10 years, the economies of Sweden and Switzerland, which are not members of the eurozone, have grown 2.25% and 1.75% respectively, the report states.
Leaving the euro now will cost up to €51bn, but that will be more than offset by a €75bn saving on propping up the single currency, Wilders said. He wants a referendum on the issue.
The report was done by Lombard Street Research (LSR). The full report (75 pages) is here (pdf), a 20 page summmary can be viewed here (pdf). Most of what the report says we’ve rehearsed earlier. But this report is a first in that it takes a look at the actual numbers.
Bottom line, as reported by to Fundweb: Eurozone could cost €2.4 trillion to keep together.
The research suggests that it will cost at least €1.3 trillion for the eurozone to be held together. This optimistic scenario assumes that the debt of Greece and Portugal are written off and healthier economies such as Germany, France, Benelux, Austria and Finland fund the budget deficits of Spain and Italy.
But the group’s pessimistic scenario, which would cost €2.4 trillion, sees Spain and Italy also needing their bond maturities refinancing. This is expected to cost almost four times the amount of bailing out Greece and Portugal. (…)
Dumas concludes: “The difficulties of the eurozone are dynamic and complex but we believe that our report, based on careful statistical analysis, points towards a growing likelihood that the eurozone cannot survive in its current form.”
In the name of all that is good and decent in the world, CAN WE LEAVE NOW?
Right, back to picking my nose and playing Solitaire on the PC. Until later.
[UPDATE001] Okay, one small update and then I’m really done: The one-liner of the day is by Charles Dumas (NL), head of LSR, during the presentation of the NL&Euro-report. Referring to the single currency for such diverse economies as exist in Europe he said:
One size fits none.
I dare anyone to come up with a more succinct expression stating the fundamentally flawed thinking that gave us the euro.
[UPDATE002] A non-exhaustive list of reactions around the ‘Net:
Dutch eurodoom – EURef
The Eurebellion begins – Vox Day
Dutch Freedom Party pushes euro exit as €2.4 trillion rescue bill looms – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
And the reactions from our so-called leaders and representative:
Rutte thinks that the guilder would have been ‘speculated to destruction’ during the financial crisis of 2008-2009. According to the prime minister the Netherlands would have come out of that crisis in much worse shape, he stated during Question Hour on Tuesday.
Really? And how do you know this? Given that, as socialist… I mean: social-democrat thinking would have it, speculators only prey on the weak: How and why would anyone seek to destroy a strong, hard and safe currency? How does that even make sense?
And of course, our intrepid Finmin also had his
non-sequitur answer ready: De Jager not impressed by guilder report Wilders (NL)
According to the minister various studies show that the cost of breaking up the eurozone are much higher then the [LSR] estimates.
Care to name three? I know of this one, or this here, or this one, none of which seem to unequivocally support our intrepid Finmins assertion. So, dear Jan-Kees, where are these studies you refer to? Where are they published? Or are *gasp* just making it up as you go along? Nah, you would never do that, would you? You have been forthright about this crisis all along, have you not?