Ambrose Evans-Pritchard again: Please Europe, either put up or break up. He explores possible scenarios for the resolution of the EUnion debt crisis. Here’s the one I like best:
Germany and its satellite economies withdraw immediately from EMU (let us say the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Flanders and Luxembourg). This allows the South to enjoy a much-needed devaluation to restore competitiveness without going through a disastrous Fisherite debt deflation. Their contracts would remain in euros, so they would not need to default.
Temporary capital controls and some form of financial repression would obviously been needed for a few weeks. The German bloc would have to stand ready to recapitalize its banking system with €100bn perhaps (peanuts in the bigger picture) to offset the shock effect on sudden exchange losses on Club Med debt. (…)
Markets would very quickly see that the greatest impediments to recovery had been removed. We could rejoice, and breathe a little easier again. My guess is that stock markets would surge in Milan, Madrid and Paris, as occurred in London and Milan after the ERM crisis in 1992.
All I can say is: Do it! Do it now!